A first-of-its-kind YouGov opinion poll of British Indian Voters, commissioned by India Inc. and Washington DC data analytics firm 0ptimus, reveals a large chunk of undecided voters waiting to be wooed by UK parties ahead of the December 12 General Election.
London based media group, India Inc. and Washington DC based data analytics firm, 0ptimus conducted the first ever pre-election survey of British Indian voter intentions through a YouGov poll from 13 November to 18 November 2019. The survey asked wide-ranging political questions about the United Kingdom, Brexit, as well as UK-India relations.
Key Findings
- Labour Party declines 12-Points among British Indians since 2017 General Election.
- A majority of British Indians dislike both Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson.
- More British Indians believe that UK-India Relations would worsen under Jeremy Corbyn than Boris Johnson.
- 47% of British Indians believe that the UK should do more to improve trade & investment with India
- Overwhelming Majority of British Indians prefer to remain in the European Union and do not support No Deal Brexit.
- 18% of respondents are still undecided - higher than most recent UK polling as a whole.
Quotes
Manoj Ladwa, Founder and CEO of India Inc. said
,
“The India Inc. Optimus Poll confirms what many have being saying for some time now, that Labour is losing its traditional support from Britain's 1.5 million strong Indian community. The staggering finding is the extent to which Indians are deserting Labour. This will certainly worry Labour campaign managers.”
“The India Inc. Optimus Poll demonstrates British Indians can no longer be treated as a 'block vote' that can be taken for granted by any political party. They have become a much more discerning electoral group that are prioritising mainstream UK economic and political issues. But at the same time British Indians want to see more improved ties between the UK and India, and greater focus on trade and investment.”
“With nearly a fifth of British Indians still undecided, and 15 constituencies in which Asians, including Indians, constitute over 40% of the population, 46 constituencies in which they constitute over 20%, and 122 constituencies in which they constitute over 10%, a continued shift towards the Conservative party among British Indian voters could be decisive in many seats.”
“Above all, the India Inc. - Optimus Poll highlights that all major political parties have a lot to play for in attracting the critical British Indian vote.”
Highlights
When asked which party they would be likely to support in the 2019 general election, 34% of British Indians report they plan to support Labour, down 12 percentage points from the 46% who voted Labour in the 2017 general election. Conservatives are currently polling at 24%, down only 4 points from 2017. Overall, this shrinks the Labour lead among British Indians from 17 points in 2017 to only 10 for the upcoming election.
Notably, 18% of respondents said they were not yet sure who they would support despite being very likely to vote. This is generally on the higher side compared to the most recent British polling as a whole.
More British Indians (28%) think that if Jeremy Corbyn became Prime Minister, UK-India relations would “get worse” compared to if Boris Johnson remained Prime Minister (25%). On the flip side, similar numbers think Johnson would “improve” relations (17%) compared to Corbyn (18%).
Regardless of who is in power, a plurality of British Indians (47%) agree that the UK should be doing more to increase trade and investment between the United Kingdom and India, compared to only 19% who say the UK is doing enough or too much.
Poll Methodology
This India Inc. Optimus Poll was conducted from 13 November 2019 to 18 November 2019 and interviewed 800 British Indian adults via the YouGov web panel.
Please scroll down for further details of the Methodology and a detailed Survey Memorandum.
Contact
For Media Comment
Manoj Ladwa
Founder & CEO, India Inc. Group
About India Inc.
India Inc. is a London-based media group that produces incisive content on investment, trade and policy matters relating to India's increasingly globalised economic and strategic agenda. Its flagship publication is the fortnightly 'India Global Business'. It also publishes each year the '100 Most Influential in UK India Relations'. In addition, India Inc. organises several high impact events annually in the UK, including India Global Week, India Inc. Leaders' Summit and the India Global Awards.
About Optimus
0ptimus is a Data Science firm based in Washington D.C. which provides quantitative and qualitative research solutions for presidential campaigns, Fortune 500 companies and non-profits around the world.
Survey of British Indian Voters
Survey Memorandum
To learn more about the political preferences of British Indian voters as we approach the 2019 General Election, London based media group, India Inc. and 0ptimus fielded a pre-election survey of 800 British Indians that was conducted by YouGov from 13 November to 18 November 2019. We asked them wide-ranging political questions about the United Kingdom as well as UK-India relations. Our key findings are summarized below, and toplines are attached separately.
Key Findings
- Labour Party declines 12-Points among British Indians since 2017 General Election.
When asked which party they would be likely to support in the 2019 general election, 34% of British Indians report they plan to support Labour, down 12 percentage points from the 46% who voted Labour in the 2017 general election. Conservatives are currently polling at 24%, down only 4 points from 2017. Overall, this shrinks the Labour lead among British Indians from 17 points in 2017 to only 10 for the upcoming election.
Liberal Democrats are the only party to see a statistically significant increase from 2017 to 2019, jumping 10 percentage points in two years (from 8% to 18%). Nearly half of party switchers (47%) reported changing support due to Brexit policy, and an additional 9% say that it is due to the respective parties' attitudes towards British Indians.
Notably, 18% of respondents said they were not yet sure who they would support despite being very likely to vote. This is generally on the higher side compared to the most recent British polling as a whole.
While British ethnic minorities tend to support the Labour Party, British Indians tend to be among the least skewed voting groups, and Runnymede noted an increase in the Conservative vote among these voters in 2017. With 15 constituencies in which Asians, including Indians, constitute over 40% of the population, 46 constituencies in which they constitute over 20%, and 122 constituencies in which they constitute over 10%, a continued shift towards the Conservative party among British Indian voters could be decisive in many seats.
- A majority of British Indians dislike both Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson.
53% of British Indians report holding an unfavourable opinion of Jeremy Corbyn, compared to only 28% who say they have a favourable view of him. We find his net favorability as negative 25 percentage points. Comparatively, Boris Johnson fares worse, with 61% having an unfavourable opinion and 23% saying they have a favourable view.
- More British Indians believe that UK-India Relations would worsen under Jeremy Corbyn than Boris Johnson.
More British Indians (28%) think that if Jeremy Corbyn became Prime Minister, UK-India relations would “get worse” compared to if Boris Johnson remained Prime Minister (25%). On the flip side, similar numbers think Johnson would “improve” relations (17%) compared to Corbyn (18%).
- 47% of British Indians believe that the UK should do more to improve trade & investment with India
Regardless of who is in power, a plurality of British Indians (47%) agree that the UK should be doing more to increase trade and investment between the United Kingdom and India, compared to only 19% who say the UK is doing enough or too much.
- British Indians do not support No Deal Brexit.
When it comes to their preference on remaining in the European Union, British Indians overwhelmingly support the Remain position (62%). On the Leave side, 24% of British Indians support Leaving the EU with a deal and just 10% support a No Deal Brexit. When pressed further, 56% of individuals who prefer Leaving with a deal would settle for a No Deal Brexit if a deal is not possible, while 29% would then prefer to Remain and 15% are not sure.
Current Opinions on Brexit Among British Indians
Methodology Summary
This India Inc. Optimus survey was conducted by YouGov from 13 November 2019 to 18 November 2019 and interviewed 800 British Indian adults via the YouGov web panel. Ethnicity was self-identified, and our target population was eligible British Indian voters out of the 1.5 million general population British Indians living in the UK (roughly 2% of total UK residents) The survey was weighted by age, gender, and education. Margins of error vary by question due to item nonresponse and response variance but is generally 3.9% for topline results (adjusted for weighting).
YouGov interviewed 843 respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 800 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, and education. The frame was constructed by stratified sampling from the 2016 UK Labour Force Survey, subselecting those of Indian ethnicity.
The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, years of education, and region. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.
The weights were then post-stratified on a three-way stratification of gender, age (5-categories), and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.