Indian diaspora is the Trump card in the US elections

More than 50 per cent of the Indian diaspora in key battleground American states are switching over to supporting President Trump, and could well be the deciding factor in the presidential election due in November. Here is a snap analysis of what lies behind this change of heart among the most powerful of US immigrant communities.

In February this year, a few days after President Donald Trump flew back from a successful state visit to India headlined by a massive rally with 100,000 supporters, the Republican presidential campaign launched a five-figure digital ad buying spree for a very unlikely demographic in the US: Indian Americans.

That targeted campaign was rolled out well before the US faced the full force of the coronavirus pandemic, but it still caught political pundits by surprise. It was possibly the first time that a Republican presidential candidate had spent such a large sum of money on bespoke ads meant for the Indian-American voters. Last week, the results of that unprecedented outreach was available for everyone to see: a poll survey found that more than 50 per cent of the Indian diaspora in key battleground states are switching over to Trump and the Republicans in the presidential election due in November.

Changing trend

“President Trump is incredibly grateful for the widespread support he has received from the people of India and from millions of Indian-Americans across the United States,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Sarah Matthews said. The survey confirms a clear trend of Indian-Americans - who traditionally vote for the Democratic Party - switching over to Republicans for the November 3 election.

While Indian-Americans generally identify with other immigrant groups in the US, the rise of a strident nationalist narrative in India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has largely helped shift the political paradigm for the diaspora, who strongly identify with India's rising stature in the global arena. Indeed, Indian Americans - about half of whom are Hindus - are the second-largest immigrant group in the US after Mexicans, but in the 2016 elections, less than 20 per cent of them supported Trump.

This time around, Republicans are confident of vastly improving that vote share - and they can't thank Prime Minister Modi enough.

The Trump-Modi equation

According to Trump's election strategists, it's his personal friendship with Modi that has played incredibly well with Indian-Americans. And by the latest census estimates, there may be 400,000 more Indian-Americans in the US now than there were four years ago.

The results of the survey - conducted by Al Mason, co-chair of the Trump Victory Indian-American Finance Committee - clearly confirm that. More than 50per cent of Indian-Americans in the battle ground states of Michigan, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania and Virginia were found to have crossed over to support Trump.

Republican outreach

The US President's close relationship with Prime Minister Modi was reflected in the two leaders jointly addressing massive public rallies in Houston and Ahmedabad and has helped him make deep inroads among Indian-Americans. But apart from this friendship, Trump himself has made an extra effort to reach out to the Indian-American diaspora during the last four years of his presidency.

“President Trump recognises the vital role Indian-Americans play in bolstering our economy, enriching our culture, and strengthening our communities,” Sarah Matthews told the PTI news agency in a recent interview.

Despite the coronavirus pandemic ravaging the US, many voters will also recall that during his first two years in office, Trump led the US to its greatest economic comeback in history. “And the unemployment rate among Indian-Americans dropped by nearly 33 per cent,” Matthews said.

“Most Indians in the US are highly educated. They are also relatively well-off, and they want low taxes, and they want people to be responsible for their own lives,” said A.D. Amar, a management professor at Seton Hall University and the leader of the Indian Americans for Trump movement. It is Trump's focus on economic policies that resonate with Indian Americans, he said.

Increasing popularity

According to Matthews, Trump continues to fight for the prosperity, health, and freedom of all Americans, including the flourishing and hardworking Indian-American community. That's what makes him increasingly popular among the community, she said.

A strong validation of Trump also came from Prime Minister Modi - who nudged the Indian diaspora in the US to support Trump in his typical style: “Ab ki baar, Trump sarkar, (This time around, vote for Trump),” Modi thundered at the joint rally in Houston last September.

The targeted ad campaign in February this year also fed into the same political narrative. One Facebook ad featured Trump and First Lady Melania standing in front of Taj Mahal. “Indian Americans are titans of business, masters of the arts and innovate technology like few others,” the ad read. “Your contributions have strengthened our culture and economy. I will always fight for YOU!” Another one said: “America LOVES India,” and featured a photo of Trump and Modi together. “Our economies have never been better, and the United States is eager to build a strong partnership with India.” A third one showed Modi and listed education policies the Trump administration backs, including tax breaks to support private- and religious-school scholarships.

Highly emotional topics

While Republicans, from the time of President George W. Bush, have been trying to make inroads with Indian Americans, one of the fastest-growing ethnic groups in the US, their success has been very limited. But the issues that Trump has brought to the fore - never the mind the George Floyd protests, the surge in coronavirus cases or his immigration stance - seem to have struck a chord with the diaspora. “These are highly emotional topics for Hindu Americans. And the stance that a lot of the liberal left within the Democratic Party is taking, I think they may just serve to push more Hindu Americans away from the party,” said Rakhi Israni, who serves on the board of the Hindu American Political Action Committee.

It is for these precise reasons that Team Trump thinks that the incumbent President has a better chance this year over Democratic contender Joe Biden. “People have changed their minds about voting for Democrats,” said Sampat Shivangi, an Indian American physician from Mississippi who will serve as delegate for Trump at the Republican National Convention this summer. Shivangi told the Politico that Trump could reach at least 60per cent support from Indian Americans in the elections.

First Family to the fore

It′s not only Trump but his family and key aides who have also worked hard to reinforce this message. According to Al Mason - who conducted the survey - while the vision of Trump is the driving force in this unprecedented outreach with Indian-Americans and a new peak in ties with India, the entire family, including First Lady Melania Trump, Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, have shown their immense respect and love for the country.

The President's son, Donald Trump Junior, and Kimberly Guilfoyle, national chair of the Trump Victory Finance Committee, have also lent their vital support. Former TV host-cum-attorney Guilfoyle is now considered as one of the most powerful individuals in the Trump campaign. Both Trump Jr and Guilfoyle have frequently echoed Trump′s love for India and Indian-Americans. "Want to see America work with incredible allies like India to make the world a safer place,” Trump Junior said at an Indian-American event in New York last year.

“America embodies family values, values of hardworking people, strong work ethic, entrepreneurial spirit and these values are shared magnificently with India as well,” said Guilfoyle, who believes that Indian-Americans are a crucial ally for the campaign. “I think we′re so lucky as a country to have so many talented, dedicated, patriotic Indian-Americans making up the incredibly diverse fabric culturally of this country and we′re lucky that they have called it their home,” Guilfoyle said.